First of all I want to thank TVO for their interesting discussions. Here's one about Poland and Russia: After the Crash.
And now let's move to the topic, how current political dance between Russia and Poland may influence Georgia.
It was not possible not to notice, that between these two countries relationships were not good. Some of us may think only on Berlin wall and very recent history, but troubling occurrences have taken place in history of Poland also earlier. One of them is Katyn. For those who don't know, Poland not only suffered in hands of Hitler, but Stalin too made these people suffer a lot. The real history was long taboo during the soviet times, but people never forgot about it. Neither this horrible event, nor ignorance of Russian politicians could help Poland and Russia to get a long.
More recently we all remember Poland's vision directed towards west. Poland has joined European Union and Polish President, Lech Kaczynski planned to deploy American surface-to-air missiles near Russian soil. Putin's Russia, who seems to see itself more than it is, has a lot against those plans. Putin made it clear, that ex-Soviet Union countries have no real independence to make their choices.
The War in Georgia in 2008 was only start to make all demands for the world clearer. Russia made step by step. Their government not only invests more in military forces, oppressing critical voices, but also in building up their security agencies. And all this in the times, when peace, better life standard and wages would be more than useful for regular Russian citizens. Not only wages are too low, but also promising Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic turned out bringing only unpaid jobs for many people.
However Russia capriciously and rudely fells it's way when it comes to bringing ex-Soviet countries under own influence. Georgia, Ukrain ... and now dead of Polish President and whole political elite in a plane crash. Not many share my opinion, that God is not to blame. Sure and understandable that nobody else is guilty as well until his/her guilt is proven. However, despite the reasons of the plane crash, which are very foggy, clear are the results. Russia gains chance, amazing chance to be loved. Good for Russia, but how all this influence our region?
Georgian President Michel Saakashvili speaks about supports he had from Polish President. So one can guess what the lost for Georgia means. Does it has any political importance for separatist regions? Not directly, but however Russia's influence over Ukraine and Poland can seem promising in gaining recognition from this countries.
But where will all these take us in the long run? Back to normal? Back to wars? Back to dubiety? Back to where we started or elsewhere?
Back to dubiety, probably until the end of Saakashvili's presidency.
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